Friday, September 26, 2008

Garda, Verenex and BCE follow-up

Allright, time for a little follow on previously mentionned stocks.

Let's start with Garda (GW.to). The stock is in an absolute freefall. Down more than 30% today on the Toronto Stock Exchange and closed at 1.58$. This is a stock that has a 52-week high of 20.82$. It seems that the stock is in the middle of a perfect storm: disappointing results, lots of debt, trying to sell a unit in the middle of a credit crisis... Things aren't looking too good and the market is really punishing it.

Verenex Energy (VRX.to) was also mentionned in an earlier post. After falling from 9$ to 7$, the stock had a 25% 1-week gain and has closed at 8.79$. Still no news about the strategic review (i.e. wanting to sell the company) but the operations are perceived has solid (by opposition to the disappointing Garda) so the stock hasn't been punished like GW.

Lastly, BCE closed at 37.20$ with a sale price of 42.75$ to be given in less than 3 months. It certainly still looks like an attractive opportunity from a pure arbitrage point of view but remember that the credit market is very tight and the biggest deal in Canadian history could potentially not get done because of lack of capital from the buyers.

As you can see, with the credit crisis, the merger and acquisition world is rough. Stock Investment Partner suggest that you be careful when trading on an arbitrage basis.

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