Long story short, knowledge is key when you wish to be a successful stock market investor. Of course, you need at least basic knowledge of evaluation methods but that is not exactly what I'm talking about.
I bet you would never walk into a restaurant for the first time and then buy the business 1 minute later. However, some investors act like that with stocks. They see it's the biggest intraday gainer... and they buy some shares. They see an uptrend in its 3-month chart... and they buy shares. They hear the story of the friend of their coworker's sister that made money with a stock last week... and they buy shares. Please don't do that.
You should invest in what you know. Read a company's annual reports, news articles, its website, research reports, etc. Basically read everything you can find. Make sure that you know everything that there's to know about it. Then, if you still like it, buy it. If you can't understand its products, don't buy. If you don't trust its management, don't buy. If you don't understand some things on its balance sheet or feel that it is not giving you the "whole picture", don't buy.
I chose to write this because the events of the last few weeks made me realise that some investors must not know their companies well enough. We have seen irrational selling in some stocks that made me think "These people are selling great companies because Lehman is in trouble? Company X has nothing to do with Lehman! Company X is unfairly punished because investors don't understand what it does and what factors affect its performance". Also, we're learning now that Lehman, AIG, Merrill and many others had some serious unknown problems. Key word here is unknown. Investors didn't know their exposure to the subprime mess and gambled that they would be fine. Turns out, they shouldn't have invested in stuff they didn't know.
Please, invest in what you know.
Showing posts with label Information. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Information. Show all posts
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Sunday, September 7, 2008
The relative value of stock analysis
You will never catch me saying that stock analysis is useless in the investment process. It is an important part of every decision and should always be done. However, is it possible that analyzing certain stocks adds more value to your decisions? I believe so and I will explain why.
Researching potential (and current) investments boils down to extracting information. If you wish to make great amounts of money, I suggest extracting usefull information and, most importantly, information unknown by most investors. In general, information is traveling very fast and is reflected rapidly in stock prices. One of your missions as a greedy and intelligent investor is to uncover situations where information travels slowly and prices do not reflect all the available information. Doing that is the definition of value-adding analysis because you're reading and crunching numbers about stuff that most of the market hasn't had the time or the desire to look at. You're not analyzing information that has been known for a week by the people of Wall Street, their brothers, their sisters, their friends, and their gardeners.
Value-adding analysis is performed on the "forgotten" stocks - i.e. the stocks that aren't followed by the big firms' research analysts and those followed by only a few small firms' analysts. The less coverage a company receives, the bigger comparative advantage you can gain by doing a complete analysis. Indeed, the stock prices of companies with low coverage have a greater chance of not representing all the information. Information travels slowly so such mispricings will eventually end. It is your role to profit from these mispricings while they last. You just have to be ready to read anything (and I really mean anything) you can find about your low-coverage companies of choice and hope to find that precious piece of information that hasn't been digested by the market yet.
While analysis of some stocks has "higher" value, analysis of any stock is valuable and Stock Market Investment Partner recommands serious analysis in all investing decisions.
Researching potential (and current) investments boils down to extracting information. If you wish to make great amounts of money, I suggest extracting usefull information and, most importantly, information unknown by most investors. In general, information is traveling very fast and is reflected rapidly in stock prices. One of your missions as a greedy and intelligent investor is to uncover situations where information travels slowly and prices do not reflect all the available information. Doing that is the definition of value-adding analysis because you're reading and crunching numbers about stuff that most of the market hasn't had the time or the desire to look at. You're not analyzing information that has been known for a week by the people of Wall Street, their brothers, their sisters, their friends, and their gardeners.
Value-adding analysis is performed on the "forgotten" stocks - i.e. the stocks that aren't followed by the big firms' research analysts and those followed by only a few small firms' analysts. The less coverage a company receives, the bigger comparative advantage you can gain by doing a complete analysis. Indeed, the stock prices of companies with low coverage have a greater chance of not representing all the information. Information travels slowly so such mispricings will eventually end. It is your role to profit from these mispricings while they last. You just have to be ready to read anything (and I really mean anything) you can find about your low-coverage companies of choice and hope to find that precious piece of information that hasn't been digested by the market yet.
While analysis of some stocks has "higher" value, analysis of any stock is valuable and Stock Market Investment Partner recommands serious analysis in all investing decisions.
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